AIMBlog_Logo_Resized

Christopher Geehern

Recent Posts

Employer Confidence Weakens in December

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Jan 14, 2019 8:30:00 AM

Massachusetts employers gave a big “Bah Humbug” to the year-end economy as business confidence withered in the face of a government shutdown and the largest one-month stock market decline since the Great Depression.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) lost three points to 58.6 during December, its lowest level since December 2016. Confidence readings have dropped five points during the past 12 months.

BCI.December.2018The retreat was led by an 8.6-point drop in employer views of the national economy, and a 4.7-point drop among manufacturing companies.

Overall confidence remains within optimistic territory, but less comfortably so than earlier in 2018.

“The Massachusetts economy remains strong, with a 3.3 percent growth rate and an unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, but employers are increasingly concerned about factors such as financial-market volatility, a dysfunctional national political debate and challenges such as the cost of providing health insurance to employees,” said Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and Lecturer, Harvard Graduate School of Design.

One employer who participated in the survey summarized the uncertainty: “A tremendous amount of unknowns are ahead.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators Lower

The constituent indicators that make up the overall Business Confidence Index were mostly lower during December.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the commonwealth lost 2.4 points to 64.7, leaving it 2.9 points lower than in December 2017.

The 8.6-point decline in the U.S. Index to 55.1 left employer sentiment about the national economy 9.1 points lower than a year earlier. It marked the lowest reading for the U.S. Index since May 2017.

The Company Index measuring employer assessments of their own operations dropped 1.4 points to 57.8, down 4.3 points year-to-year. The Employment Index gained 1.2 points to 54.4 during the month, leaving it down a modest 2.3 points for the year, while the Sales Index declined 1.6 points in December.

Employers don’t expect to change their outlook anytime soon.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 2.6 points last month to 60.0. But the Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, dropped 3.4 points for the month and 7.2 points for the year.

Non-Manufacturers (59.4) were slightly more optimistic than manufacturing companies (57.7), re-establishing a trend that existed for most of 2018. Large companies (60.5) registered higher confidence readings than medium-sized companies (57.3) and small companies (57.7). Companies in Eastern Massachusetts (59.8) were more bullish than those in the west (57.0).

Paul Bolger, President of Massachusetts Capital Resource Company and a member of the BEA, suggested that uncertainty about economic factors such as slowing corporate profits, rising interest rates, and trade are overshadowing employer confidence in what remains a fundamentally strong growth pattern.

“Employers are cautiously watching earnings warnings from Apple and other major brands, while hoping that negotiations between the US and China are able to ratchet down the trade war,” Bolger said.

Eye on Health Costs

AIM President and CEO Richard C. Lord, also BEA member, said moderating the cost of providing health insurance to employees remains the biggest concern for employers who participated in AIM’s biennial Issues Survey in the fall.

That’s one reason, Lord said, that AIM has called upon the Legislature and Governor Charlie Baker to end immediately the two-year assessment imposed on employers last year to close a financial gap at the state’s MassHealth insurance program for low-income residents.

“The assessment is no longer necessary because employers last year paid tens of millions of dollars more than anticipated under the levy. Businesses are on track to contribute some $519 million by the time the assessment sunsets at the end of this year instead of the $400 million envisioned under the 2017 legislation,” Lord said.

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Massachusetts economy, Massachusetts employers

Business Confidence Recovers in November

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Dec 11, 2018 7:47:22 AM

Business confidence in Massachusetts recovered slightly during November amid a swirl of contradictory economic indicators ranging from agitated financial markets to international trade tensions to steady but slowing growth in the Bay State.

BCI.November.2018The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) gained 0.6 points to 61.6 in November, ending a three-month slide that brought confidence to its lowest level in more than a year.

The November reading was one point lower than in November 2017 and 2.5 points lower than at the beginning of the year.

Increased optimism about the state and national economies balanced employer concerns about their own operations and hiring plans during November. The reading remained well within optimistic territory, but employers are clearly also seeing risk on the horizon.

“The survey reflects the uncertainty facing employers amid a still-strong state and national economy,” said Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and Lecturer, Harvard Graduate School of Design.

“Employers are increasingly confident in the economy but less so in the prospects for their own companies and in their own hiring plans. Economic growth remained at a solid 3.3 percent in Massachusetts for the third quarter, but that was a slowdown from earlier in the year. Payroll employment was up for the quarter but weakened in August and September.”

One employer who participated in the survey summarized the uncertainty:

“We are up double digits, but tariffs are negatively impacting our … prices and lead times. Looking forward to more stable times.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators

The constituent indicators that make up the overall Business Confidence Index were mixed during November. 

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the commonwealth rose 2.4 points to 67.1, leaving it 1.9 points higher than in November 2017.

The U.S. Index gained 2.1 points to 63.7, up 1.5 points from a year earlier.

The Company Index measuring employer assessments of their own operations dropped 0.4 points to 59.2, down 3.1 points year-to-year. The Employment Index slid 3.8 points for the month while the Sales Index was up 2.3 points.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 0.7 points last month to 62.6 and 0.8 points for the year. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, gained 2.1 points for the month and lost 1.1 points for the year.

Manufacturers (62.4) were slightly more optimistic than non-manufacturing companies (60.8), reversing a trend that has existed for most of 2018. Companies in the eastern part of Massachusetts (64.0) were significantly more bullish than those in the west (58.5).

Large companies (62.3) and medium-sized companies (62.4) registered higher confidence readings than small companies (59.7).

Michael A. Tyler, CFA, Chief Investment Officer, Eastern Bank Wealth Management and a member of the BEA, suggested that the wide swings in employer views of the overall economy and their own prospects may reflect growing discomfort with some emerging trends.

“Employers remain generally optimistic about a Massachusetts economy running at 3.5 percent unemployment and a growth rate of more than 3 percent. At the same time, the slowing housing market, rising interest rates, and continued uncertainty about trade are clearly causing concern,” Tyler said.

Post-Election Economy

AIM President and CEO Richard C. Lord, also BEA member, said employers at least have a clearer view of the political landscape now that the 2018 mid-term elections are completed.

“The prospect of divided government in which Democrats will control the US House of Representatives and Republicans the Senate and the White House provides some assurance to employers who do not relish policy lurches to the left or right,” Lord said.

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Massachusetts economy, Massachusetts employers

Technology Becomes Fifth Utility for Cities

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Nov 16, 2018 11:19:01 AM

A sophisticated technology infrastructure and real-time data have allowed the Boston Police Department to reduce crime in the city by 20 percent while arresting far fewer people than in the past.

SmartCities.2“A lot of that is because we are policing smarter. All this technology allows us to do our jobs better,” retired Boston Policy Commissioner William Evans told more than 200 business leaders at an AIM Executive Forum on Smart Cities this morning.

Evans, now Chief of Police at Boston College, said police now have access to video feeds, body camera footage, “shot-spotter” sound data and predictive analytics as they assign police officers to areas most affected by crime. Beginning in January, he said, Boston police officers will collect all of that information on smart phones.

Several miles to the south in Quincy, Chris Cassani is overseeing a $1.3 million project to install an adaptive signal platform that will allow the city’s traffic signals to share data to improve traffic flow. He said the system contains a software algorithm that can grow alongside the tremendous amount of economic development taking place in Quincy.

“There has been a tremendous amount of change, a tremendous amount of investment,” said Cassani, the city’s Director of Traffic, Parking, Alarm and Lighting.

Smart Cities technologies represent a kind of “fifth utility” for municipalities alongside water, electricity, gas and waste, according to three senior executives from Dell who lead the discussion. The executives said that technology not only makes more efficient the city services upon which businesses depend, but also increasingly makes reams to data available to employers on everything from flooding history to refuse collection.

“We absolutely have to build out a digital infrastructure,” said Corky Allen, Regional Field Director for State and Local Government Affairs for Dell EMC.

Rich Barlow, Field Chief Technology Officer for Dell, described how the City of Virginia Beach recently developed the ability to coordinate data from hundreds of flood sensors to minimize damage from hurricanes and other natural disasters.

AIM President Rick Lord said all the changes have important implications for employers.”

“Technology is transforming the world outside your business,” Lord told the gathering.

“It’s changing the management of the roads your employees travel to work, the infrastructure that “provides power to your building, and the municipal emergency services you call if the worst happens.”

Topics: Technology, AIM Executive Forum

Business Confidence Drops to 17-Month Low

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Nov 6, 2018 8:04:29 AM

Business confidence in Massachusetts declined to its lowest level in 17 months during October as the uncertainties that roiled global financial markets seeped into employer outlooks.

BCI.October.2018The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) lost 1.6 points to 61.0 last month, the fourth decline in the last five months.

The reading remains well within optimistic territory, but the BCI now sits 1.7 points lower than its level of a year ago and at its lowest point since May 2017.

Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and Lecturer, Harvard Graduate School of Design, said the October decline is noteworthy because of large declines in employer confidence in their own operations, and among manufacturers.

“Fears about slowing growth, trade wars and rising interest rates buffeted financial markets this month, and some of those same fears, combined with an increasingly acrimonious mid-term election, affected employers as well,” Torto said

“The good news is that the fundamentals of the economy remain strong. MassBenchmarks reports that the Massachusetts economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate during the third quarter and the national economy added 250,000 jobs last month.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators

The constituent indicators that make up the overall Business Confidence Index were almost all lower during October.

The one exception was the Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the commonwealth, which rose 0.2 points to 64.7. Confidence in the state economy has declined 0.4 points since October 2017.

The U.S. Index lost 2.0 points to 61.6, leaving it 0.9 points lower than a year ago.

The Company Index measuring employer assessments of their own operations dropped 2.0 points to 59.6, down 2.4 points year-to-year. The Employment Index lost 0.3 points during October while the Sales Index tumbled 3.1 points to 57.4.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.0 point last month to 63.3 and 0.3 points for the year. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, lost 2.1 points for the month and 3.2 points for the year.

Non-manufacturers (61.7) were slightly more optimistic that manufacturing companies (60.3). Companies in the eastern part of Massachusetts (61.7) were more bullish than those in the west (60.3).

Medium-sized companies (62.1) registered higher confidence readings than either large companies (59.5) or small companies (60.6), an unusual result since large companies typically show the most optimism on the BCI.

Katherine A. Kiel, Professor of Economics at The College of the Holy Cross in Worcester and a member of the BEA, suggested that large companies may be particularly concerned about the ratcheting up of trade tensions between the United States, China and other trading partners.

“Employers responding to the survey are expressing fears about the potential effects of rising tariffs both on the price of raw materials and their ability to expand overseas markets,” Kiel said.
Intersection of Politics, Economy

AIM President and CEO Richard C. Lord, also BEA member, agreed that international trade friction and uncertainty about the duration and scope of new tariffs are clouding employer views of an otherwise solid economy.

“Concerns about trade and tariffs are likely to influence employer decisions as we move toward the end of 2018 and into the New Year. Hopefully, the results of the mid-term elections today will shed some light on the direction of trade policy moving forward.”

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Massachusetts economy, Massachusetts employers

Berkshire Award Winners Discuss Business Success

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Oct 19, 2018 4:49:01 PM

Three Berkshire County employers who will be honored with Next Century and Sustainability Awards next Thursday by Associated Industries of Massachusetts, sat down recently on the John Krol Show to discuss business success.

The program, sponsored by AIM-member Berkshire Money Management, featured Canyon Ranch in Lenox, B&B Micro Manufacturing of North Adams and Berkshire Sterile Manufacturing of Pittsfield.

Watch the video and then join us in Pittsfield on Thursday as we honor these forward-thinking companies. There is no charge to attend, but pre-registration is required.

 

Register for the Berkshire Employer Celebration

Topics: Massachusetts employers, AIM Next Century Award, AIM Sustainability Award

Lord to Retire as AIM President, CEO in 2019

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Oct 12, 2018 11:00:24 AM

Richard C. Lord, who built Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) into one of the most powerful and far-reaching business associations in the commonwealth, will retire next year after leading the organization for almost 20 years.

Lord.Speaking-1Lord, a North Adams native and Williams College graduate who took the top job at AIM in 1999, will remain as president and chief executive officer while the AIM board of directors chooses a successor. He will ensure a smooth leadership transition while overseeing critical ongoing AIM public-policy and organizational initiatives through the middle of 2019.

“Rick Lord has built AIM into an organization of more than 4,000 employers from all sectors of the economy who believe that business should be a positive force for creating a better, more prosperous world. He has led the organization through a period of unprecedented growth and change, and created tremendous upward momentum for our next leader,” said Dan Kenary, Chair of the AIM Board of Directors and CEO of The Harpoon Brewery in Boston.

Lord made the 103-year-old former manufacturing association the voice of all Massachusetts employers on generational economic issues such as the cost of health insurance, taxation, education, worker training and energy. At the same time, he expanded the membership of AIM into developing areas of the state economy such as services, technology, biosciences and robotics.

His accomplishments range from representing the views of employers during the landmark 2006 Massachusetts Health Care Reform Law and subsequent 2012 Health Cost-Containment Law to expanding the AIM HR Solutions business to help employers both large and small manage complicated human-resources issues.

“It has been an honor and privilege to serve as President and CEO of Associated Industries of Massachusetts for almost two decades. It’s now time for me to set out on a new adventure while AIM finds a leader who will build on this strong foundation for the future,” Lord said.

“I’m most proud of leaving AIM with the most talented team of professionals I have ever had the opportunity to work with. The primary asset of a business association is its people and the staff of AIM enjoys an enviable level of credibility and respect among employers, elected officials and key decision makers.”

Lord joined AIM in 1991 as Executive Vice President of Government Affairs after serving as Chief of Staff for the Committee on Ways and Means of the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Before entering public service, Lord worked in financial positions at General Electric Company and McCormack and Dodge.

He is a 1977 Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Williams College with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Economics and Psychology.

Lord has served on an array of policy and charitable board during his tenure at AIM. He currently serves as a member of the Massachusetts Health Policy Commission and chairs the board of directors of the Massachusetts Workforce Training Fund Program. He also serves as a board member at The Children’s Trust Fund, the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education, the Massachusetts Association for Mental Health and A.I.M. Mutual Insurance Company.

“We are grateful that Rick has left AIM in a position of strength as we begin the search for a new CEO,” said Patricia Begrowicz, who will lead the AIM Board of Directors committee that will search for a successor.

“The Search Committee plans to engage a professional search firm to cast a wide net for the next CEO of AIM. It’s a great job with a great organization that has a great future,” added Begrowicz, President of Onyx Specialty Papers in South Lee.

Topics: Associated Industries of Massachusetts

Confidence Slips, But Overall Outlook Remains Positive

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Oct 2, 2018 8:00:00 AM

Business confidence in Massachusetts declined slightly during September as employers balanced optimism about economic fundamentals with concerns about tariffs and new state regulations.

BCI.September.2018The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) lost 0.6 points to 62.6 last month, leaving it almost even with its level of year ago. The BCI has been moving for most of 2018 within a narrow range that is well within optimistic territory.

Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and Lecturer, Harvard Graduate School of Design, said the steady business confidence readings may reflect the lack of any significant economic or political changes that threaten the nine-year-old recovery.

“The underlying direction of the state and national economies remains positive. The Massachusetts economy grew at a staggering 7.3 percent annual rate during the second quarter and unemployment remains near historic lows at 3.6 percent,” Torto said.

“At the same time, employers remain wary of raw-material price increases brought about by new tariffs. The September survey was taken prior to the announcement Sunday of a new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada, so it will be interesting to learn whether that deal affects employer attitudes moving forward.”

The AIM Index, based on a survey of Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators

The constituent indicators that make up the overall Business Confidence Index were mostly lower during September.

The Massachusetts Index assessing business conditions within the commonwealth ended the month at 64.5, falling 0.2 points for the month and 0.9 points for the year.

The U.S. Index lost 1.1 points to 63.6, still 3.8 points higher than in September 2017.

The Company Index measuring employer assessments of their own operations declined half a point to 61.6, down 0.7 points from September 2017. The Employment Index gained 0.3 points during September while the Sales Index lost 0.5 points to 60.5.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, fell 1.8 points last month to 64.3. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, gained 0.6 points. The Current Index rose 1.4 points during the year while the Future Index lost 1.1 points.

Manufacturing companies (63.3) were more optimistic than non-manufacturers (61.8), reversing a long-term trend in the confidence survey. Companies in the eastern part of Massachusetts (64.4) were more bullish than those in the west (60.2).

Michael D. Goodman, Executive Director of the Public Policy Center (PPC) at UMass Dartmouth and a BEA member, noted that the persistent shortage of skilled workers in key occupations and the tightening labor market at long last appear to be exerting upward pressure on wages, even if the benefits of rising incomes remain concentrated in the Greater Boston region and among the state’s highest earning households.

“Aggregate wage and salary income as measured by state withholding tax collections in Massachusetts grew at a 19.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, while nationally, U.S. workers saw their biggest pay increase in nearly a decade during the 12 months ending in June.” Goodman said.  “While the rising tide is not yet lifting boats in every corner of the Commonwealth, economic conditions in Massachusetts were undeniably very strong in the second quarter.”

AIM President and CEO Richard C. Lord, also BEA member, said the solid level of employer confidence during the past year bodes well for job growth in the months ahead.
“Confident employers hire new workers, invest in capital equipment, develop new markets and expand their plants and offices,” Lord said.

“It’s particularly encouraging to see year-over-year gains in both the Manufacturing Index and the Employment Index. Jobs and economic opportunity are, after all, the ultimate benefits of a strong economy.”

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Tariff, Massachusetts economy

Employer Training Drives Growth in Educational Technology

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 26, 2018 1:30:00 PM

The educational technology sector in Massachusetts, which already employs some 25,000 people, continues to grow in large part because of burgeoning interest by employers in providing training to employees, according to a new report from an industry accelerator.

StateofWorkforceThe State of Work Force Edtech, published by LearnLaunch in Boston, reports that investors are pouring tens of millions of dollars into Massachusetts educational technology companies such as CareAcademy and Authess. But while the industry grew initially by developing software and services for colleges and universities, the action is now around worker training.

“We found that close to $3 billion has been invested in last three years in whole set of new players providing either functional training or 21st century skills or marketplace skills,” says Eileen Rudden, co-founder of LearnLaunch.

“It addresses the whole system of how companies are finding and growing employees in a tight labor market in Massachusetts.”

The report, funded by the Lumina Foundation, finds that workforce educational technology companies in the United States attracted $2.9 billion in funding between 2015 and this year, with half of that money going into companies developing solutions to train workers, rather than to educational institutions. The potential market is immense in a world where experts believe that technology disruption may displace as many as 800 million jobs worldwide.

The global market for corporate learning alone is expected to reach $31 billion by 2020.

“To keep pace with innovation, modern corporations are expanding their learning and development programs. On-demand training is essential to corporations operating in dynamic and compliance-driven markets. In addition, businesses are increasing the use of online functional training programs as middle-skill talent becomes scarcer,” the report concludes.

Associated Industries of Massachusetts, which provides management and human-resources education for hundreds of employers, is part of the trend. The association has for many years offered online training courses in collaboration with MindEdge Inc. of Waltham.

“The persistent challenge of finding skilled employees is placing a premium on training as a means of improving productivity and reacting to market opportunities,” says Gary MacDonald, Executive Vice President of AIM HR Solutions.

The LearnLaunch Accelerator provides educational technology startup companies with access to capital, mentors, knowledge and work space. The organization has nurtured more than 45 companies.

Rudden said educational technology startups are still selling to colleges and universities, where 25 percent of graduate degrees are earned online, as well as to so-called “informal” education settings such as coding boot camps. Some companies such as New York-based Trilogy Education Services are combining those markets by establishing partnerships to deliver training boot camps within universities.

Investment in the Massachusetts Edtech sector has been steady:

  • Panorama Education raised a $16 million B round led by Emerson Collective
  • Ellevation Education raised a $10 million B round led by Reach Capital
  • Better Lesson raised a $10 million B round led by Owl Ventures
  • Tinkergarten - $5.4 million Series A led by Owl Ventures
  • DataCamp - $4 million Seed 4 funding led by Arthur Ventures
  • College Vine raised $3.1 million a round from Morningside Technology Ventures
  • AdmitHub raised $2.9 million led by Reach Capital
  • Pragya Systems - $1.67 million of Series 1 and 2 Seed funding from undisclosed investors
  • KinderLab Robotics - $1 million raised of Seed funding from Brain Robotics Capital
  • Chalk Talk - $2 million from undisclosed investors.
  • CareAcademy - $1.93 million Seed led by Rethink Education, Lumina Foundation and Techstars

Topics: Technology, Workforce Training, Massachusetts employers

Non-Voters Will Outnumber Voters in November, Pollster Says

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 14, 2018 3:28:11 PM

The number of registered voters in the United States who will choose not to cast ballots in the mid-term elections is more than twice that of people who will vote for Democratic and Republican candidates combined, Suffolk University political pollster David Paleologos told the AIM Executive Forum this morning.

Paleologos2018The director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center estimates that 77 million Americans will vote in November, but that 160 million registered voters will stay home. Paleologos challenged the 280 business leaders in the audience to take a leadership role in urging employees to participate in the political process.

“You have people working for you who are not registered to vote. You have people working for you who are registered but who will not vote,” he said.

Paleologos, who typically interviews only probable voters for his political surveys, conducted an unusual poll in April of people not registered to vote or registered voters who have not voted. These non-voters showed the same preference patterns as their voting neighbors in terms of candidates and the country’s direction but cited a multitude of reasons for sitting out elections.

Their reasons ranged from a feeling that their votes would not make a difference to apathy to lack of trust in the candidates on the ballot. More than 78 percent of the non-voters believe the nation needs more than the two current two major political parties to represent the political views of the American people.

Paleologos predicts that if the current trend continues, the 2036 presidential election will mark the first race for the White House in which the total votes cast for Democrats and Republicans will be less than the people who don’t vote.

“This will be the number one topic in 2020,” he told the audience. “The numbers don’t lie.”

The swelling ranks of non-voters represent an opportunity for both Republicans and Democrats as they battle for control of the US House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate in November. Unregistered voters preferred President Trump against a generic Democratic nominee in the Suffolk survey, but registered non-voters strongly favor the Democrat against the incumbent president.

More than 80 percent of non-voters say they would consider casting ballots if they knew their votes could swing a close election in either direction.

Paleologos’ polling of people who do vote indicates potential trouble for Republicans in Congress. Fifty percent of Americans in a generic poll favor Democrats versus 39 percent Republicans in the mid-terms, while 58 percent say they want to elect a Congress that “stands up” to President Trump.

Those results remain consistent in statewide polls in key jurisdictions such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At the same time, Paleologos stressed that voters by a slim margin do not appear inclined to impeach the president. Forty-seven percent of voters oppose impeachment, even following the guilty pleas of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, while 44 percent favor impeachment and 9 percent are undecided.

Paleologos2

 

Topics: Election 2018, AIM Executive Forum

Strong Economy Boosts Business Confidence

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 11, 2018 5:10:00 AM

Massachusetts employers were equally confident about the national and state economies during August, breaking an eight-and-a-half-year run in which they were more bullish about the commonwealth than the nation as a whole.

BCI.August.2018The brightening view of the US economy boosted overall business confidence as employers headed for the end of the third quarter.

The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) gained 2 points to 63.2 last month after tumbling more than five points during June and July. The gain left the BCI two points higher than a year ago, comfortably within optimistic territory.

Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA) and Lecturer, Harvard Graduate School of Design, said the last time employers were more optimistic about the national economy than the state was during the nadir of the Great Recession in May 2009 when the AIM BCI Massachusetts Index was 33.1 and the US Index was 34.4.

“The confluence of opinion reflects gathering optimism about the US economy rather than any weakness in the Massachusetts business climate. The Massachusetts Index rose 1.5 points during the year, but the US Index soared 4.5 points during that same period,” Torto said.

The optimism about national prospects came despite persistent concerns about rising production costs generated by tariffs and other factors.

“Steel tariffs are causing major cost escalation on goods and equipment ordered for installations. Freight costs are also rising rapidly. Many manufacturers of our equipment orders are refusing to quote freight until day of shipment and will not even give estimate of freight costs,” wrote one BCI participant.

The AIM Index, based on a survey of Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators

The constituent indicators that make up the overall Business Confidence Index were largely higher during August.

The Company Index measuring employer assessments of their own operations rose 2.4 points to 62.1, up 1.2 points from August 2017. The Employment Index gained 2.4 points to end the month at 57.0 while the Sales Index lost 0.8 points to 61.0.

The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, rose 2.5 points to 66.1, leaving it 4.8 points higher than the year earlier. The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, rose 1.5 points during August, but remained down 1.0 point for the year.

Non-manufacturing companies (63.6) were slightly more optimistic than manufacturers (62.8). Companies in the eastern part of Massachusetts (65.2) were more bullish than those in the west (60.8).

“All of these numbers are well within optimistic range and reflect the views of employers operating in a state economy that grew at a 7.3 percent annual rate during the second quarter. The acceleration in economic growth underscored strong gains in employment, earnings, and consumer and business spending,” said Elliot Winer, Chief Economist, Winer Economic Consulting, LLC, and a BEA member.

“Underlying economic strength is, for the moment, overshadowing a somewhat unpredictable public policy environment.”

Historically strong economy

AIM President and CEO Richard C. Lord, also BEA member, agreed that employers are driving a Massachusetts economy that remains historically strong.

“The state unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent, wage and salary income surged 19.2 percent during the second quarter and economic output has accelerated,” Lord said. 

He cautioned, however, that the escalating series of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs among the US and its trading partners are starting to take a toll on Massachusetts employers.

“The thousands of member employers of Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM) are increasingly concerned about the negative effect of current and proposed tariffs on Massachusetts companies. Particularly alarming are tariffs on raw materials, components and finished goods coming from China,” Lord said.

“While we concur with the need to address China’s unfair trade practices, we do not believe that tariffs are the best strategy. Tariffs are already hurting our companies here in Massachusetts and additional damage is anticipated, by business owners and leaders.”

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Massachusetts economy, Economy

Subscribe to our blog

Posts by popularity

Browse by Tag