Employers Ring Out 2019 on Confident Note

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Jan 14, 2020 8:00:00 AM

Massachusetts employers rang out 2019 on an optimistic note as business confidence rose to its highest level in 15 months.

BCI.December.2019The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Business Confidence Index (BCI) gained 1.6 points to 62.2 last month, leaving it comfortably within optimistic territory 3.6 points higher than a year ago.

The strong year-end results were driven by brightening views of the US economy and an increasingly bullish outlook among Bay State manufacturers.

The results came during a month when the US economy created 145,000 jobs to cap a decade of steady payroll gains that marked the longest growth period in 80 years of record-keeping. December also saw an easing of the international trade tensions that disquieted employers for much of 2019.

“Business confidence remained steady and strong throughout 2019 as employers saw underlying strength in the economy through sometimes distracting political uncertainties,” said Raymond G. Torto, Chair of AIM's Board of Economic Advisors (BEA).

The AIM Index, based on a survey of more than 100 Massachusetts employers, has appeared monthly since July 1991. It is calculated on a 100-point scale, with 50 as neutral; a reading above 50 is positive, while below 50 is negative. The Index reached its historic high of 68.5 on two occasions in 1997-98, and its all-time low of 33.3 in February 2009.

The Index has remained above 50 since October 2013.

Constituent Indicators

The constituent indicators that make up the Business Confidence Index moved mostly higher in December.
The US Index assessing business conditions nationally surged 3.6 points during the month and 7.7 points for the year to 62.8. The Massachusetts Index lost 1.8 points in December but remained higher than the national reading at 65.2

The Future Index, measuring expectations for six months out, gained 2.1 points to 61.6, leaving it 4.3 points higher than a year ago. The Current Index, which assesses overall business conditions at the time of the survey, rose 1.1 points to 62.8, an increase of 2.8 points over 12 months.

The Employment Index was up 0.9 points in December and 1.0 points for all of 2019 amid a persistent shortage of workers that may become worse as large number of baby boomers retire.

Non-manufacturers (63.2) were slightly more confident than manufacturing companies (61.4). Large companies (65.2) were more optimistic than small (61.7) or medium-sized (60.5) companies. Companies in Eastern Massachusetts (62.7) remained more optimistic than those in the west (61.6).

Sara L. Johnson, Executive Director of Global Economics at IHS Markit and a BEA member, said global economic growth appears to be stabilizing, supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States, China, Western Europe, and Japan.

“After slowing from 3.2 percent in 2018 to 2.6 percent in 2019, global real GDP growth is projected to hold steady in 2020. The ratcheting down of trade tensions, progress on the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, favorable financial market conditions, and resilient consumer spending contributed to a sense of stability at the close of 2019,” Johnson said.

Pending Issues

AIM President and CEO John R. Regan, also BEA member, said employers face an eventful 2020 as state policymakers wrestle with major issues such as transportation financing, health reform and the implementation of paid family and medical leave.

“The Baker administration and the Massachusetts Legislature have done a commendable job managing the state budget while maintaining an environment of economic growth. The decision to allow the MassHealth employer assessment to sunset indicates that lawmakers understand that overburdening business will ultimately constrict economic opportunity,” Regan said.

Topics: AIM Business Confidence Index, Massachusetts economy, Massachusetts employers

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