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Non-Voters Will Outnumber Voters in November, Pollster Says

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 14, 2018 3:28:11 PM

The number of registered voters in the United States who will choose not to cast ballots in the mid-term elections is more than twice that of people who will vote for Democratic and Republican candidates combined, Suffolk University political pollster David Paleologos told the AIM Executive Forum this morning.

Paleologos2018The director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center estimates that 77 million Americans will vote in November, but that 160 million registered voters will stay home. Paleologos challenged the 280 business leaders in the audience to take a leadership role in urging employees to participate in the political process.

“You have people working for you who are not registered to vote. You have people working for you who are registered but who will not vote,” he said.

Paleologos, who typically interviews only probable voters for his political surveys, conducted an unusual poll in April of people not registered to vote or registered voters who have not voted. These non-voters showed the same preference patterns as their voting neighbors in terms of candidates and the country’s direction but cited a multitude of reasons for sitting out elections.

Their reasons ranged from a feeling that their votes would not make a difference to apathy to lack of trust in the candidates on the ballot. More than 78 percent of the non-voters believe the nation needs more than the two current two major political parties to represent the political views of the American people.

Paleologos predicts that if the current trend continues, the 2036 presidential election will mark the first race for the White House in which the total votes cast for Democrats and Republicans will be less than the people who don’t vote.

“This will be the number one topic in 2020,” he told the audience. “The numbers don’t lie.”

The swelling ranks of non-voters represent an opportunity for both Republicans and Democrats as they battle for control of the US House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate in November. Unregistered voters preferred President Trump against a generic Democratic nominee in the Suffolk survey, but registered non-voters strongly favor the Democrat against the incumbent president.

More than 80 percent of non-voters say they would consider casting ballots if they knew their votes could swing a close election in either direction.

Paleologos’ polling of people who do vote indicates potential trouble for Republicans in Congress. Fifty percent of Americans in a generic poll favor Democrats versus 39 percent Republicans in the mid-terms, while 58 percent say they want to elect a Congress that “stands up” to President Trump.

Those results remain consistent in statewide polls in key jurisdictions such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At the same time, Paleologos stressed that voters by a slim margin do not appear inclined to impeach the president. Forty-seven percent of voters oppose impeachment, even following the guilty pleas of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, while 44 percent favor impeachment and 9 percent are undecided.

Paleologos2

 

Topics: Election 2018, AIM Executive Forum

Economic Development Chief Staying Busy

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Mar 23, 2018 12:22:16 PM

Jay Ash acknowledges that it’s a great time to be Secretary of Housing and Economic Development in Massachusetts.

Ash.jpg“I am getting a call a week from a company talking to me, not about bringing 100 or 200 or 500 jobs, but 1,000, 5,000 or 10,000 jobs,” Ash told 300 business leaders during a presentation to the AIM Executive Forum this morning.

Ash has recently played a key role in the recruitment or expansion in Massachusetts of major employers ranging from Amazon, General Electric and MassMutual to IBM Watson Health, Kronos and Siemens. These expansions promise thousands of high-quality new jobs for Massachusetts residents while cementing the state’s reputation as a global center of innovation and growth.

“What an unbelievable time to be involved in economic development, and what an unbelievable time to be involved in a great state like Massachusetts,” he said.

Ash, an avuncular Democrat who has overseen economic development for the Baker Administration during its first three years, said Massachusetts benefits from a uniquely bipartisan approach to issues affecting the economy. He noted that the economic development bill announced by the Republican governor just two weeks ago has already been scheduled for a hearing Tuesday by the Democratically controlled Legislature.

The bill would commit $100 million to regionally significant economic development projects throughout the commonwealth, establish an apprenticeship tax credit, double grants to community colleges and vocations high schools to purchase equipment and establish a permanent sales-tax holiday.

Ash said the administration is pursuing its economic agenda in tandem with efforts to expand the availability of housing and to address persistent educational achievement and funding gaps. He thanked Associated Industries of Massachusetts for efforts to streamline the process used by communities to permit both low-income and market-rate housing.

 “There’s reason to be optimistic. Let’s roll up our sleeves because the best jobs done are the one we do ourselves.

Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Economic Development, Economy

Video Blog: How Will Automation and Robotics Affect the Economy?

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Feb 5, 2018 8:30:00 AM

How will artificial intelligence, automation and robotics affect the Massachusetts economy? The Associated Industries of Massachusetts Economic Outlook Forum tackled that question on January 26. Expert analysts included, left to right, moderator Jeff Brown, Business Editor of WBZ radio in Boston; Peter Russo Director of Growth and Innovation at the Massachusetts Manufacturing Extension Parntership; Martha Sullivan, President and CEO of Sensata Technologies in Attleboro; and David Askey, Co-Founder and CEO of Ascend Robotics in Cambridge.

Topics: Technology, robotics, AIM Executive Forum

AIM President: Technology Key to Solving Worker Shortage

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Jan 26, 2018 1:14:00 PM

Robotics, artificial intelligence and automation hold the unique promise of resolving the shortage of skilled workers that threatens the economic future of Massachusetts, AIM President and Chief Executive Officer Richard C. Lord said this morning.

Lord.Speaking.jpgDelivering the fourth annual State of Massachusetts Business address before 300 senior business executives, Lord acknowledged that automation suffers from a grim image problem in the larger society where people fear that robots will take their jobs. But he said Massachusetts employers starved for qualified employees are using robots in collaboration with people to extend the reach of their work forces.

“In a state where employers created 70,000 jobs last year and unemployment stands at 3.6 percent, the structural shortage of skilled workers stands as the primary impediment to sustained economic growth,” Lord told the 2018 AIM Economic Outlook Forum.

“Massachusetts companies across industries ranging from software to manufacturing to hospitality have postponed expansions, declined to bid for contracts or outsourced work because they simply can’t find people with the training needed to compete in a complex world. The only way out of this economic dead end for Massachusetts is to rely upon productivity improvements fueled by intelligent technology to extend the reach of the talented people we employ.”

Lord highlighted the example of Barrett Distribution of Franklin, which is using robots to improve productivity and reduce the amount of time its 500 employees spend moving throughout large warehouses to provide orders for retailers and e-commerce customers. Established as a single warehouse in 1941, Barrett now operates more than 2.1 million square feet of state-of-the-art warehouse space across the country.

“The industry is changing very fast, the robots will get smaller, more adaptive, (and) a little bit cheaper, so I think you’ll see the adoption rate go up very high across the industry. And certainly for us, we’re going to be on the leading edge of this technology,” Scott Hothem, Senior Vice President of Customer Solutions at Barrett, said in a video shown the audience.

Lord said the good news is that Massachusetts is a global center of robotics, AI and automation. Driven by academic research institutions like MIT, Harvard, UMass and BU, Massachusetts occupies a unique position as the crucible of intelligent industries ranging from driverless vehicles to Patriot missiles to Roomba vacuum cleaners.

It’s also worth noting, according to Lord, that there is plenty of room for improvement on the productivity front. The United States posted an historically low annual labor productivity growth rate of 1.1 percent between the great Recession and 2016. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that automation could raise productivity growth globally by 0.8 to 1.4 percent each year.

A panel of experts largely agreed with the idea that automation will enhance, rather than replace, most human labor.

David Askey, founder of Ascend Robotics in Cambridge, said the manufacturing companies that use his technology have realized productivity increases approaching 40 percent that have also raised the compensation and value of workers.

“Most of our calls come from customers who are not able to find enough skilled workers or want to expand,” Askey said.

Martha Sullivan, President and CEO of Sensata Technologies of Attleboro, said that while the technology for mass use of autonomous vehicles remains several years away, it is a technology that could change the entire business model of the auto industry from one that sells vehicles to consumers to one that helps companies manage fleets.

“Will you have private ownership anymore? Will you need private automobile insurance? … It becomes an asset- management question,” she said.

Lord said employers acknowledge the need to engage in debate about the hard issues raised by the technological revolution: Does automation ultimately create or cost jobs? Do Amazon and similarly disruptive companies ultimately help or harm the economy? And are technology driven productivity increases to blame for the slow rate of wage growth eight years into an economic recovery?

“But the ultimate truth is this – technology and innovation are here to stay; they do not regress, they do not go away and they do not waiver from the relentless pursuit of removing inefficiencies from the business economy.,” Lord said.

“If large numbers of workers are not going to walk through the doors of our companies to write code or make jet engine parts, employers will have to find ways to do more with less.”

Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Massachusetts economy

DraftKings CEO Sees Bright Future

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Nov 17, 2017 11:33:48 AM

The worlds of sports, media and gaming are likely to coalesce during the next several years and the co-founder and chief executive of Boston-based DraftKings believes his company and its 8 million customers will be a major player in that new world.

Robins.jpgJason Robins, who built DraftKings into a $1.5 billion fantasy sports colossus in just five years, told 250 business executives at the AIM Executive Forum this morning that companies like his have raised interest in professional sports and given fans an entirely new experience of watching everything from NFL Football to major league soccer

“A lot of exciting things on the horizon,” he said during a 45-minute conversation with AIM President Richard Lord.

"What technology and mobile have done for gaming and media, it's incredible, and we've only sort of reached the tip of the iceberg. I think you're going to see a convergence of media and gaming.

"I also think this sort of media landscape where all the content is scattered around different places and you have to have a bunch of different services or you have to sort through 800 cable channels to find what you're looking for, it's not necessary anymore."

Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) allows fans to enter daily and weekly fantasy sports contests and win prizes based on individual players’ performances. Industry researchers estimate that players spent an estimated $3.26 billion on daily fantasy sports in 2016.

Robins said DraftKings surpassed more established competitors to became the pre-eminent DFS company “because we had a better mousetrap.” The keys to that mousetrap, he said, were products, technology and analytics that created a “game within a game” for sports fans.

What Robins and his partners did not anticipate in 2012 was the intense level of regulatory scrutiny that DraftKings and other DFS companies would engender both in Massachusetts and across the country.

DraftKings has supported consumer-protection regulations for the fantasy industry implemented by Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey in 2016 covering issues such as excluding minors, ensuring “fair” gameplay, prohibiting contests on college sports, and spelling out standard marketing practices. Robins said those regulations, though not perfect, have become the basis for DFS legislation in more than a dozen other states.

The company is less enthusiastic about a commission report several months ago that recommended that the Massachusetts Legislature enact a law that would label DFS as gambling and give the Massachusetts Gaming Commission oversight over the industry.

“I will continue to work with them on the way they have gone about their analysis,” Robins said.

He believes the future is a bright one for DraftKings in large measure because of its customer demographics. DraftKings, he said, have the customers everyone wants – millennials in higher income brackets who do not hesitate to spend money on entertainment.

"What we've tried to do is position ourselves as a platform, partner with companies that own these types of rights, and say, look, we can help you in the world where you're trying to grow your subscriptions, your direct-to-consumer business," Robins said.

"We have the customers you want, we know exactly what they're interested in and we have the data to target them."

Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Technology

Speaker Calls for Employer Policy Engagement

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 15, 2017 11:33:00 AM

The first time Robert DeLeo spoke to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts after being elected Speaker of the Massachusetts House of Representatives in 2009, unemployment was 8.8 percent.

The new speaker drove to the AIM speech past empty buildings along Route 128. Traffic was minimal. Consumer and business confidence was at a nadir in the wake of the financial crisis and Great Recession.

Speaker DeLeo reminisced about that first speech this morning as he returned to address more than 300 business leaders at the AIM Executive Forum. He noted that unemployment now stands at 4.2 percent and that Massachusetts employers added 11,000 jobs in August alone. And Boston is on the short list of cities being considered for major development by Amazon just as General Electric settles into its new corporate headquarters.

The speaker attributed the economic resurgence in part to a unique collaboration forged by legislators and the business community to develop pro-business policies and that also benefit the society at large.

“They are not mutually exclusive. One does not detract from the other,” Speaker DeLeo said in a wide-ranging speech during which he thanked AIM and employers for helping to build consensus on issues such as education, wage equity and the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act.

“We are very mindful of the impact that changes might make on our employers, which we always remember are our economic engine,” he said.

The speaker outlined several key priorities as the Legislature heads in the fall, including moderating the cost of health insurance and monitoring what has become a persistent sluggishness in state tax revenues.  That sluggishness is affecting states throughout the country, despite the overall healthy economy.

“We obviously haven’t seen the revenue growth we have seen in past economic recoveries,” Mr. DeLeo said.

The speaker expressed optimism in the wake of a recent report that health-care costs in Massachusetts increased at a moderate 2.8 percent in 2016, well below the growth benchmark established by the 2012 health-cost control law. Such stability is essential at a time when federal health-care policy remains in flux.

“We have been successful in driving down health-care spending growth, even in a difficult and unpredictable environment,” he told the crowd.

“We appreciate willingness of business community to work with us and nd their patience on how to move forward.”

Topics: Massachusetts Legislature, House Speaker Robert DeLeo, AIM Executive Forum

Uber Envisions New Transportation Model

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Mar 30, 2017 4:16:43 PM

The ride-sharing app Uber has logged the fastest ascent in Silicon Valley history, growing from a startup eight years ago to a company operating across 450 cities in 73 countries and serving 40 million customers each month.

But the company’s Boston-based regional manager, Meghan Verena Joyce, said the company’s ultimate objective is much larger - to merge traditional transportation infrastructure with new technology to create a new model of moving from one place to another.

“I often wonder whether my daughter will ever have a driver’s license,” Joyce mused as she spoke to 300 people at the AIM Executive Forum in Waltham this morning.

The new transportation model, Joyce said, will make efficient use of private automobiles and public transit to reduce traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions and land-intensive parking. It will create a system in which everyone – including people in low-income urban areas often left out of the transit grid – will have access to reliable and affordable transportation.

“We believe there is a better way,” said Joyce, a Harvard MBA who served as an associate at Bain Capital and as a senior policy advisor at the US Treasury before joining Uber in 2013.

The challenge is not the one billion automobiles that exist worldwide, according to Joyce, but the solitary manner in which we use them. A show of hands from the audience indicated that the vast majority of people had driven to the Executive Forum with only one person in the vehicle.

Joyce said that Uber has already taken steps to integrate technology with existing transportation infrastructure to streamline the system. Many Uber customers in Boston combine ride-sharing with the MBTA, while others use a modified car-pooling initiative called UberPOOL to share rides with neighbors who travel to the same locations at similar times.

Almost one-third of Uber trips in Great Boston come from UberPOOL, according to Joyce. In San Francisco, where UberPOOL has existed for a longer time, the program has reduced car traffic in that city and saved an estimated 6.2 million gallons of gasoline while cutting carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 55,000 metric tons.

Joyce said Uber’s vision also includes providing transportation options for people in low-income urban areas. People in Dorchester and Mattappan, who she said formerly waited an average of 25 minutes for taxi pickups, now enjoy 96 percent reliability and pickups within 3-5 minutes with ride sharing.

“Our vision is to create a transportation ecosystem that is better for everyone,” she said.

Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Associated Industries of Massachusetts, Transportation

Business Leaders Share Outlook for 2017

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Jan 23, 2017 10:10:11 AM

What lies ahead for Massachusetts employers as a new administration comes to Washington in 2017? Listen as three distinguished business leaders - Robert Reynolds, President and Chief Executive Officer of Putnam Investments in Boston; Donna Cupelo, region president of Verizon in New England; and Lisa Chamberlain, managing partner of The Chamberlain Group in Great Barrington – share their opinions as part of the AIM Economic Outlook Forum. Moderator is Jeff Brown, Business Editor of WBZ Radio in Boston.

Topics: Massachusetts economy, Massachusetts employers, AIM Executive Forum

Politico Editor: 2016 Election Highlights Blue-Collar Concerns

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 16, 2016 2:18:05 PM

Donald Trump has more social-media followers than the number of votes normally needed to be elected president of the United States.


It’s a statistic that Peter Canellos, Managing Editor of Politico, says helps to explain why the media coverage of the 2016 presidential election, and the election itself, is different from any other in history.

“These changes are themselves a major factor in the 2016 presidential campaign,” Canellos told more than 250 business leaders at the AIM Executive Forum this morning.

“We can’t establish the political dialog, as we did in the past, but we cannot ignore it.”

Recalling his work covering the 2002 presidential race when he was often the only reporter present when Bill Clinton and other candidates spoke, Canellos said that every word a candidate says today is recorded on a dozen iPhones, often held by representatives of the opposing campaigns, and posted online before any formal media outlet can post the story.

“Even if a news organization tries to exercise restraint, or tries to make decision about the news, the conversation is already galloping ahead without them,” said Canellos, who spent 26 years at the The Boston Globe before moving to Politico.

He acknowledged that many people were uncomfortable with the degree of control that “media mandarins” from The New York Times and other establishment publications once exerted over the narrative of presidential campaigns. The new reality of social media, he said, has recast the role of reporters to one of monitoring the veracity of campaign statements, tracking the connection between money and politics and looking at some of the issues “that candidates seek to avoid.”

Canellos believes the two major political parties will survive an election with two relatively unpopular nominees, but that each will change significantly.

“If you look at the history of the country the two parties’ positions have shifted dramatically. Who would have thought that the Democrats would be the party of Wall Street now? And the migration of working- class blue-collar voters to the Republican party seems to have accelerated strongly with the Trump nomination.”

The Democrats, according to Canellos, will have to sort out whether their future lies with the insurgent wing represented by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, or the establishment block led by Hillary Clinton.

“On the Republican side there will be quite an identity crisis. Even if Trump is elected, there will be questions within the Republican party about who they should be and what they should be,” he said.

Canellos said that early predictions that Democrats would regain control of the U.S. Senate appear to have been premature. Control of the Senate is now “a 50-50 proposition” as senators such as John McCain who trailed badly in the polls during the summer appear to be making up ground.

He believes the long-term legacy of the 2016 presidential election will be a sustained debate over the plight of middle-class workers, especially in traditional manufacturing areas now struggling to find new ways to grow.

“Trump has played   a role in putting that constituency front and center...Even some of the Democratic proposals like free college tuition and retraining through community colleges are responding to that constituency."

Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Economy, Policy

Video Blog | Economic Growth, Health Costs, Talent Development

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Jan 22, 2016 3:02:53 AM

The 2016 Associated Industries of Massachusetts Economic Outlook Forum featured a panel of experts looking at prospects for the Massachusetts economy. The panel, moderated by WBZ radio Business Editor Jeff Brown, included Jay Ash, Secretary of Housing and Economic Development; Martha Sullivan, President and CEO of Sensata Technologies in Attleboro; and Dr. Howard Grant, President and CEO of Lahey Health in Burlington.

 

Topics: Skills Gap, Health Care Costs, Massachusetts economy, AIM Executive Forum

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