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Non-Voters Will Outnumber Voters in November, Pollster Says

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Sep 14, 2018 3:28:11 PM

The number of registered voters in the United States who will choose not to cast ballots in the mid-term elections is more than twice that of people who will vote for Democratic and Republican candidates combined, Suffolk University political pollster David Paleologos told the AIM Executive Forum this morning.

Paleologos2018The director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center estimates that 77 million Americans will vote in November, but that 160 million registered voters will stay home. Paleologos challenged the 280 business leaders in the audience to take a leadership role in urging employees to participate in the political process.

“You have people working for you who are not registered to vote. You have people working for you who are registered but who will not vote,” he said.

Paleologos, who typically interviews only probable voters for his political surveys, conducted an unusual poll in April of people not registered to vote or registered voters who have not voted. These non-voters showed the same preference patterns as their voting neighbors in terms of candidates and the country’s direction but cited a multitude of reasons for sitting out elections.

Their reasons ranged from a feeling that their votes would not make a difference to apathy to lack of trust in the candidates on the ballot. More than 78 percent of the non-voters believe the nation needs more than the two current two major political parties to represent the political views of the American people.

Paleologos predicts that if the current trend continues, the 2036 presidential election will mark the first race for the White House in which the total votes cast for Democrats and Republicans will be less than the people who don’t vote.

“This will be the number one topic in 2020,” he told the audience. “The numbers don’t lie.”

The swelling ranks of non-voters represent an opportunity for both Republicans and Democrats as they battle for control of the US House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate in November. Unregistered voters preferred President Trump against a generic Democratic nominee in the Suffolk survey, but registered non-voters strongly favor the Democrat against the incumbent president.

More than 80 percent of non-voters say they would consider casting ballots if they knew their votes could swing a close election in either direction.

Paleologos’ polling of people who do vote indicates potential trouble for Republicans in Congress. Fifty percent of Americans in a generic poll favor Democrats versus 39 percent Republicans in the mid-terms, while 58 percent say they want to elect a Congress that “stands up” to President Trump.

Those results remain consistent in statewide polls in key jurisdictions such as Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, Maine, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

At the same time, Paleologos stressed that voters by a slim margin do not appear inclined to impeach the president. Forty-seven percent of voters oppose impeachment, even following the guilty pleas of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, while 44 percent favor impeachment and 9 percent are undecided.

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Topics: AIM Executive Forum, Election 2018

Business Leaders File Suit Against Proposed Income Surtax

Posted by Christopher Geehern on Oct 3, 2017 11:17:56 AM

AIM President and Chief Executive Officer Richard C. Lord is among five prominent business leaders who filed suit today challenging the validity of a proposed constitutional amendment imposing a surtax on incomes more than $1 million.

ScalesofJusticeVerySmall.jpgThe five business and fiscal policy leaders - representing a range of traditional and well-established companies, innovative start-ups and small and owner-operated businesses throughout the Commonwealth - filed their complaint with the Supreme Judicial Court, challenging an initiative petition recently certified for the 2018 Massachusetts ballot.

The initiative petition at issue in the complaint seeks to amend the state Constitution to impose a new graduated income tax, adding a new four percent tax (representing an 80 percent increase in the personal income tax rate) on all incomes more than $1 million and dictating how the revenue must be spent.

The plaintiffs assert that the proposal is riddled with constitutional flaws. It cynically and improperly combines a graduated income tax that has been rejected each and every time by Massachusetts voters, with attractive spending in a prohibited manipulation of the vote called “logrolling.” And it does something that has never been done before: never in the history of Massachusetts has a tax or tax rate been set in the Constitution, making the new tax essentially permanent and unchangeable.

The five plaintiffs lead organizations that represent the full breadth of the Massachusetts economy and are united in their commitment to ensuring that the Commonwealth continues to foster conditions that support job development and economic growth. They are: Christopher Anderson, President of the Massachusetts High Technology Council, Inc. (MHTC); Christopher Carlozzi, Massachusetts State Director of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB); Richard Lord, President and Chief Executive Officer of Associated Industries of Massachusetts (AIM); Eileen McAnneny, President of the Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation (MTF); and, Daniel O’Connell, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Massachusetts Competitive Partnership (MACP).

The named defendants in the lawsuit are Attorney General Maura Healey and Secretary of State William Galvin.

“It is really important to understand that this lawsuit is not about whether creating a new graduated income tax is good public policy or bad public policy, it is about the way that it is being done, which we find to be so clearly flawed and unconstitutional that it is alarming,” said Chris Anderson of the MHTC, speaking on behalf of the plaintiffs.

“We would be equally opposed if they were proposing the opposite and trying to roll back the income tax and cut funding for education or transportation. Amending the Constitution to achieve taxing and spending by popular vote is just a terrible idea, and could undo much of the good work that Massachusetts has done in terms of creating a successful economic climate.”

The plaintiffs also note that it is critical to understand the difference between typical initiative petitions (also referred to as ballot questions) that amend state statutes, which voters are accustomed to seeing, and this ballot question that would change the Massachusetts Constitution and strip the Legislature of its ability to easily amend the policy in the future. Only three initiative petitions to amend the Constitution have ever appeared on the ballot.

The plaintiffs’ complaint, prepared and filed by attorney Kevin Martin of Goodwin Procter, outlines three critical ways in which the proposal violates the requirements and restrictions of Article 48 of the Massachusetts Constitution – which specifies the limits of the initiative petition process – and is therefore unconstitutional.
  • It combines three unrelated subjects: it establishes a graduated income tax, and mandates spending the money raised only on education and transportation. These three parts are not mutually dependent or related and for this reason violate Article 48’s ban on “logrolling,” a strategy by which an unpopular provision is joined with a popular provision making it more likely they both will pass. Here, the filers of the proposed initiative petition are seeking to pass the unpopular graduated income tax – rejected by Massachusetts voters five times in its history – by combining it with the popular causes of funding for education and transportation.

  • The second legal flaw is that it improperly allocates funding. Article 48 specifically bars initiative petitions that “make a specific appropriation of money from the treasury” and this one would require that all revenue raised by the new tax be spent “only” on education and transportation. This usurps the Legislature’s sole Constitutional authority to set state spending policy.

  • The third constitutional problem is that Article 48 does not authorize the use of an initiative petition to set taxes in the Constitution, outside of the Legislature’s control. Never in the history of the Commonwealth has a tax or a tax rate been set in the Constitution. 

“Here is the bottom line,” concluded Anderson. “On five occasions since 1915, Massachusetts citizens have considered ballot initiatives that would empower the Legislature to establish a graduated income tax and the citizens rejected all five.

“In this latest attempt, the proponents have decided not to propose authorizing the Legislature to adopt a graduated income tax. They have decided to impose it through the initiative petition, amending the Constitution. As a key element of the strategy, they have logrolled it by including two attractive subjects that would receive the funding. And they have limited the set of people who would be impacted. This would set a bad precedent for Massachusetts, which will likely lead to future amendments to the Constitution by other special interest groups. This time it is about those making over a million dollars, what’s next?”

Topics: Income Surtax, Election 2018, Taxation

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